Horse Racing: When Backing the Favorite, Think Outside the Box
standard thought.
The ordinary gambler believes most of what the professionals on television tell him. He listens to his comment and considers it the Gospel according to … whoever. If he wishes to make money by endorsing or putting in horses, then he must begin to think for himself. Unless he’s willing to do this: don’t play at the racetrack, don’t go to a bookie’s office, don’t use Betfair, just go home.
Standard thinking is what turns most of the racing public who enjoy betting on nags into sheep. They read the newspapers, listen to the informants, follow the commentary on television with the avid attention of a hungry cat, and never earn a penny worth talking about.
To win you must think outside the box. You have to do what the other sheep are not doing. When you start to think differently about how you bet, you will start to think differently about the race as you analyze the form. This is good, because when you start to think differently about the format of the race, you open yourself up to possibilities that the rest of the betting public cannot and will never see, much less take advantage of.
think beyond
Have you ever seen a race where the favorite seemed to have all the boxes checked but the bets just didn’t add up? He moved while another horse was apparently being heavily backed up. TV commentators mention that this horse is being backed up in the market, they start talking about its merits and all of a sudden the price drops again and the race is on for thousands of punters across the country to shove their crisp bills into the betting counter before the price. it falls further or the race is cancelled.
I love those situations as I usually sit pretty on the favorite and manage to keep my swagger to myself until I get home. You see, I don’t listen to what all these experts think. They rarely add anything of value to the research process and even when they do, it’s usually too late to use it. Remember this: TV commentators and newspaper reporters work for a living; they are there to entertain you, to guide you through the events of the day. They are not there to provide you with winners.
Conclution
When choosing your bets, use your head. If it looks like a horse is going to win, chances are it will. The key factor is whether you think he will do it. Believe in your ability to choose well, to read the form, to read between the lines even when everyone else screams otherwise. Some of your best days will come when you back the favorite when everyone else says you can’t win or, better yet, when everyone is betting on the favorite and you’re sitting on that 10/1 chance. Now that is really beautiful.
Think outside the box and you’ll find a difference in your bank balance.