Initial Thoughts on Yushin Okami Vs Hector Lombard
One of my themes for MMA betting is putting emphasis on planning ahead. My advance planning process usually looks like this; A fight is announced, I make an initial hypothesis about the fight, and then as the fight approaches, I do my research, put my hypothesis to the test, and then determine if we have a chance to bet.
It was recently announced that Yushin Okami will be fighting Hector Lombard on the March 3 UFC card on FUEL TV 8, which takes place in Japan. This is a stacked card. In addition to Okami vs. Lombard, includes Wanderlei Silva vs. Brian Stann, Mark Hunt vs. Stefan Struve and Takanori Gomi vs. Diego Sanchez.
On a recent podcast episode I talked about Yushin Okami and how his chin is made. Anderson Silva broke Yushin Okami’s chin and Okami no longer has the ability to take a punch. If any of the top 15 middleweights hit Okami, he will go down. The key when one of these guys fights Okami is if they can keep the fight going. Alan Belcher evidently couldn’t stay off his back and lost the fight as a result. But this is where it gets tricky for Okami against Lombard. Unless Lombard is completely worn out, Okami probably won’t be able to defeat Lombard. Lombard stopped multiple takedowns by Tim Boetsch, and Lombard has a very solid takedown defense with his judo base. If Lombard is healthy, I think Yushin will have a hard time getting a takedown.
And if this fight holds up for a decent length of time, Lombard will land punches and knock out Okami. It’s as simple as that. Okami has a broken chin. We have seen the chin chin phenomenon over and over in MMA. I dedicated a chapter of my book Betting on MMA to chin strength. Some recent examples of guys with chapped chins are Chuck Liddell, George Sotiropoulos, and now Yushin Okami. Anderson Silva broke Okami’s chin and Tim Boetsch pulled him out a second time. Then, against a below-average opponent in Buddy Roberts, Yushin had no desire to stay on his feet. Whenever they were on their feet, Roberts tagged Okami and Okami went for the takedown. He looked very bad standing against Roberts. And then, most recently against Belcher, Okami didn’t react well to being hit and Belcher even shook him once. My hypothesis is simple. Okami is going to fight for takedowns against Lombard, Lombard is going to land punches to the feet, and those punches will shake Okami and knock him out.
The odds are still unclear, but I hope that most of the MMA world is aware of the fact that Okami could be at a serious style disadvantage in this fight. That sentiment will likely be reflected in the odds of the money line. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lombard opens anywhere from even money to being a moderate to large favorite. It would ruin my betting plans if Lombard is a huge favorite, but even if he is, all is not lost. I hope that whatever Lombard’s winning odds are, the odds of him winning within the distance or winning by ko / tko will be very attractive. Okami isn’t going to subdue Lombard, he’s not going to tko Lombard, and his usual decision path to victory is hampered by Lombard’s takedown defense. I think we could be in for a Big Game Hunting opportunity here, and also that Lombard’s prop odds will probably be attractive enough to provide us with a margin of safety. As the fight gets closer, I’ll do my usual research and see if my initial hypothesis holds up.